Wednesday, February 24, 2010

Severe Weather Statement

Let me mention I love weather. One of my favorite parts of flight lessons was learning about weather. And learning to draw my own conclusions because if I learned anything from flying and living in the mountain west it is that the weatherman knows nothing about our weather.


They know so little about mountain effect snow that prior to the previous Winter Olympics in Utah the federal government funded a two year study of mountain weather. They learned nothing it seems. I find the severe weather statements and advisories and watches almost comic.

... UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...
INCREASING CLOUDS OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING WERE THE SIGNAL OF ANOTHER APPROACHING WEATHER DISTURBANCE... WHICH WILL IMPACT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO STARTING LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. 

Strong beginning I suppose but note they had to wait until there were actually clouds to the west of us to come up with this. So there is a need to hedge their bets here.
LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THIS DISTURBANCE MAY TURN OUT TO BE STRONGER THAN FORECAST MODELS RECENTLY PREDICTED.

I should point out that at one time there were three computer models for forecasting weather. One of these three models did not even included the state of New Mexico. They had used a National Geographic map (oh, yes the great maker of all maps) that put Arizona next to Texas and our largest city, Albuquerque somewhere near Phoenix. And the models are based on collected data from remote automatic weather stations. They better two programs forecast Angel Fire weather based on a station outside of Santa Fe. Okay it is within 100 miles but it is 3000 feet lower in altitude and on the dry side of the mountain. And south of us!. That makes a huge difference when the Sangre de Cristo mountains are between you and them.

Okay, so maybe the National Weather Bureau in Albuquerque needs to hedge just a bit more.

AT THIS TIME... THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A MAJOR WINTER STORM. HOWEVER... IF FORECAST MODELS TREND TOWARDS A STRONGER SYSTEM... LOOK FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS OR WINTER WEATHER MESSAGES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBUQUERQUE.

All which brings us to one of the most frequently asked questions at our Visitor's Center: How much snow are you going to have next Christmas? We want to book reservations for next year.  I just want to get over to Taos to run a couple errands. And there is the art council meeting we have been trying to get in for two weeks and keep canceling due to weather. It is currently scheduled for Thursday when it was just going to be snow flurries. So maybe Saturday?

ANOTHER AND MORE SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM APPEARS ON TRACK FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

BTW the Italics are mine. I know better than to make any statement about weather here. They don't even do current weather well. My scroll at the bottom of my browser says it is haze and -24F. It is clear as a bell and 7F.

1 comment:

  1. Melbourne has very changeable weather, which provides an endless variety for its residents, bemusement and surprise to its visitors. Needless to say, the weatherman often gets the forecast wrong here. Melbournians, however, remain unfazed as we know that we can expect all four seasons in one day, most days!

    I recently bought a little book called "Learn to Predict the Weather - A DIY Manual", which I look forward to reading. I can't get it more wrong than the experts, then, can i?

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